🔥 Top-Scored PDMR Purchases
High Conviction is InsidersAlpha's composite signal, firing only when a transaction scores highly across multiple dimensions simultaneously: transaction size relative to the insider's history, role seniority, clustering with peers, and proximity to pre-earnings windows. It identifies the subset of insider buys most likely to carry genuine informational content.
Live insider transactions with this signal active across 13 European markets.
How it works
Not all insider purchases are equally meaningful. A board member buying €5,000 of shares in a company with a €5bn market cap is qualitatively different from a CEO buying €500,000 when the stock has just declined 15% and two other executives are buying at the same time. The High Conviction signal is designed to capture this distinction. It combines the conviction score (based on the insider's historical win rate and average returns) with an assessment of the current transaction's characteristics. Transactions reaching the High Conviction threshold have historically produced an average 30-day return of +18.8% for profitable trades in InsidersAlpha's database.
Detection methodology
A transaction is flagged as High Conviction when it achieves a combination of: (1) a conviction score of 60 or higher based on the insider's track record, (2) a transaction value that represents a significant position for that individual, and (3) one or more additional signal badges active (cluster, repetitive, or pre-earnings). The label is intentionally conservative — it applies to roughly 5–10% of all buy transactions.
Frequently asked questions
What is the conviction score?
The conviction score (0–100) is calculated from the insider's historical performance across four weighted factors: 30-day win rate (25%), 30-day average return (20%), 90-day win rate (35%), and 90-day average return (20%). Scores are capped at outlier returns of +200% to prevent distortion. A score of 60+ is rated 'Strong', 80+ is 'Elite'.
How common is the High Conviction signal?
InsidersAlpha identifies roughly 40–60 High Conviction transactions per week across all 13 covered markets. The signal is intentionally selective — applying to approximately 5–10% of all recorded buy transactions.
What is the average return on High Conviction buys?
Based on InsidersAlpha's tracked database, profitable High Conviction trades (those with positive 30-day returns) averaged +18.8% at the 30-day mark. This is calculated from actual post-trade performance data with returns capped at +200% to exclude outliers. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Can I get email alerts for High Conviction buys?
Email alerts are on the InsidersAlpha roadmap. Currently, High Conviction buy transactions appear prominently in the Alerts feed (Watchlist tab) and are highlighted throughout the platform. Pro subscribers see all High Conviction transactions in real time.
Other insider signals
InsidersAlpha tracks five distinct insider trading signals. They can fire independently or in combination — co-occurrence of multiple signals on the same transaction is associated with higher conviction.
See our methodology page for a full explanation of how all signals are calculated.